24 Jun 2024

“I don’t know that they haven’t”

 This week I listened to Hugh Hewitt interview former Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren discuss the war situation in Israel right now. One quick answer to a Hewitt question stopped me in my tracks.

With focus shifting to a seemingly imminent war with Hezbollah in the north, Hewitt wondered about Israel’s own weapons capabilities. As you well know, the Biden Regime is holding up weapons and ammunition, in order to see that Hamas emerges intact (that’s the obvious truth few will acknowledge in the media). In particular, the discussion had turned to air power. Hewitt asked if Israel will ever build its own long-range bomber.

“I don’t know that they haven’t,” Oren posited.

Wow! It was almost a throwaway line; the interview was concluding. But it tells us a lot.

Look, Israel has vast experience with intelligence and disinformation and misinformation. They are the best when it comes to understanding propaganda and messaging. Oren’s quick, casual answer was a message:

“We have capabilities no one knows about.”

It is estimated that in one more week, the IDF will have completed its control of Rafah and thus, the Gaza Strip. Of course, it will be years before they leave and as of right now, no one knows the fate of the remaining hostages. But focus is shifting to the war deemed far more existential. Hezbollah’s rocket and missile stockpile has long been a worry. We’re about to find out how fearsome they are. It is also estimated by some that Hezbollah’s foot soldiers will pose a real challenge to the IDF. I’ve heard they are “battle-hardened.” Tough to know how they got battle-hardened against defenseless civilians in Lebanon. I also remember hearing similar nonsense from Iraq before both Gulf Wars.

In any case, I am just as convinced, as one or two IDF generals are, that the IDF can fairly quickly bomb Lebanon back to the second millennium B.C. I believe it.

This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 80 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel, compared to 52 attacks the previous week. Attacks escalated in response to the killing of Taleb Sami Abdallah, the commander of the al-Nasr unit and a long-time Hezbollah operative. Hezbollah increased its use of surface-to-air missiles and advanced UAVs to attack Israeli Air Force aircraft in the skies of south Lebanon. Two Israeli civilians and two IDF soldiers were injured in the attacks and considerable damage was caused by extensive fires which broke out in northern Israel. This week, Israel killed more commanders in Lebanon.

We could be going back to a pre-2006 reality, where Israel maintains a deep buffer zone in Lebanon. That would allow 100,000 Israelis to return home.

It was in 1982-83 that the IDF invaded Lebanon, that time to push-out the PLO. Hezbollah is a much more formidable opponent, sure, but the IDF can impose its will.

It’s also important to note that there are serious adversaries for Hezbollah in Lebanon. As it was 40 years ago, Christian militias stand prepared to rise up if Israel threatens Hezbollah. Kamil Chamoun, leader of the Free Nationalist Party, warned that twenty thousand armed Sunnis, Druze and Christians would take to the streets if Hezbollah attacked the Christian areas.

That ain’t chopped chicken, friends.

On June 9 and 12, Hezbollah announced it had attacked IAF fighter jets with anti-aircraft missiles. On June 13, 2024, Hezbollah announced that it had attacked an IDF post with a double-barreled, 23mm diameter anti-aircraft gun mounted on an ATV (Hezbollah combat information Telegram channel, June 13 and 14, 2024). It was apparently the first time the weapon had been used in the current conflict.

Now, in the event of all-out war, the terrorists claim they can immediately send Pro-Iranian militias from Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. This alleged force would also include Palestinians.

I think that an important point to always keep in mind in these situations is closely linked to Michael Oren’s comment/message: Only Israel knows what it can and will do. My personal belief is that an unrestrained Israel is well able to vanquish any enemy.

And I will constantly beat this drum: Stop being scared for Israel. What enemy can stand before God? We like to say that “We win in the end.” Yes, but…

God wins in the end.

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