The Bible’s View of Forecasting

Today, we have become accustomed to think of forecasting as simply a reasoned projection … perhaps an extrapolation of past events and nothing more. However, it is potentially much more than that.

The word “forecast” (châshab in Hebrew) means “to think, plan, esteem, calculate, invent, make a judgment, imagine, count, […] to plan, devise, […] to invent, […] to be reckoned, […] to be imputed” (Source: Brown–Driver–Briggs).

As such, we learn that the Bible’s definition of forecasting takes into account the spirit of its intent: To think … to devise … to plan … to contemplate of … involving cunning and purpose. Forecasting can really not be done without a broader complicity of purpose. The intent of hearts therefore reflects upon our forecasts.

As such, it is not surprising that nowhere does the Bible encourage forecasting. Planning yes, but not forecasting the future based upon our own intents and interests.

Interestingly, in the entire Bible (here, using the KJV) the word “forecast” is found only twice. In both instances, it involves the final reign of the Antichrist. (See Daniel 11:24, “he shall forecast his devices,” and verse 25).

Expressly, the Hebrews were instructed not to “divine” or to consult techniques to gain insights into the future. We outline here a few such references:

“The nations you will dispossess listen to those who practice sorcery or divination. But as for you, the LORD your God has not permitted you to do so” (Deuteronomy 18:14).

“Let no one be found among you who sacrifices their son or daughter in the fire, who practices divination or sorcery, interprets omens, engages in witchcraft” (Deuteronomy 18:10).

Why did God discourage forecasting? Why is the future so frustratingly impenetrable to the human? Why, as part of the Creation, was mankind confined to live inside linear time and the present?

The Bible provides the answers. Firstly, God has chosen to distinguish Himself to the world through His ability to see the future. He knows the beginning from the end. This is significant, because it is a unique capability. No one else possesses this power … not spirit-beings, angels nor humans.

The Bible cites this ability as a proof of our God. He says: “[…] declare to us the things to come, tell us what the future holds, so we may know that you are gods. Do something, whether good or bad, so that we will be dismayed and filled with fear” (Isaiah 41:22-23).

Mankind having chosen rebelliousness, God gives societies over to its charlatan forecasters. For example, “All the counsel you have received has only worn you out! Let your astrologers come forward, those stargazers who make predictions month by month, let them save you from what is coming upon you” (Isaiah 47:13).

A second reason that mankind is unable to reliably predict its future is that, “The heart is deceitful above all things, and desperately wicked: who can know it? (Jeremiah 17:9). The biases of the flesh are deceitful.

By contrast, the prophecies inspired through the Spirit are reliable and truth. “We also have the prophetic message as something completely reliable, and you will do well to pay attention to it, as to a light shining in a dark place, until the day dawns and the morning star rises in your hearts” (2 Peter 1:19).

Forecasting Falsehoods and Lies

A sad fact is that false predictions are generally very popular. A consequence of this is that many people do not even care whether a prediction is biased or useless. They gauge their acceptance of a prophecy by its pleasantness.

A major theme in the Old Testament concerns the many false prophecies of self-elected prophets, who claimed that they had “a message from the Lord” (Jeremiah 23:38). This was a major problem. “The idols speak deceitfully, diviners see visions that lie; they tell dreams that are false, they give comfort in vain” (Zechariah 10:2). There are many similar admonitions in the Bible.

Such forecasters (or prophets) were forecasting things that people instinctively favored. Why is it that that false prophets tended to be very popular? Why did the people fall for “[…] the prophets and diviners among you [who encouraged them with deceitful dreams]” (Jeremiah 29:8)?

They were practicing “neuroreligion.” Prophecies of peace and prosperity were very popular. They liked to hear “smooth things” (Isaiah 30:10) and preferred to be ignorant of anything they perceived to be negative or the truth.

They would “say to the seers, see not; and to the prophets, prophesy not unto us right things, speak unto us smooth things, prophesy deceits” (Isaiah 30:10 KJV). Micah mocked this biased penchant of the people. “If a liar and deceiver comes and says, ‘I will prophesy for you plenty of wine and beer,’ that would be just the prophet for this people!” (Micah 2:11). No doubt, an offer of free beer and wine would today fill a church.

In New Testament times, false teachers had also mastered this art of neuroreligion. “By smooth talk and flattery they deceive the minds of naive people” (Romans 16:18).

In the same way, the Church today is being decimated by false teachers and forecasters. “For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear” (2 Timothy 4:3). This is modern fortune telling … the application of “neuroreligion.” It is religion and faith that is designed to appeal to the natural human … their hardwired biases and pleasures.

Thoughts to Ponder

What are we to make of the predictions of our world’s seers, forecasters and futuristic schemers? “[…] They do not know the thoughts of the LORD; they do not understand his plan” (Micah 4:12).  And, as the Bible outlines, forecasting also is an act of “planning,” “sorcery,” or “devising.”

Firstly, God Himself is opposed to mankind’s self-determination and arrogance. “This is what the LORD says—your Redeemer, who formed you in the womb: I am the LORD, the Maker of all things, who stretches out the heavens, who spreads out the earth by myself, who foils the signs of false prophets and makes fools of diviners, who overthrows the learning of the wise and turns it into nonsense” (Isaiah 44:24-25). We can know that as long as God lives, a rebellious world will be doomed to false, self-deceiving forecasts and plans of men.

In the meantime, the business of forecasting remains big business. The fact that these predictions are largely wrong and useless does not seem to matter. Catering to the itching ears of its clients remains extremely lucrative, most certainly so in financial industries. Just as in the Old Testament times: “Her leaders judge for a bribe, her priests teach for a price, and her prophets tell fortunes for money. Yet they look for the Lord’s support and say, ‘Is not the Lord among us? No disaster will come upon us’” (Micah 3:11).

Much of North American Christianity has fallen for a similar blindness. Micah describes today’s state of affairs exactly … specifically so in North America and other nations of Christian heritage. They all are heavily materialistic and accept as beneficial the business of “positive” deceptions. They are biased to believe in an optimism that is based upon natural (pagan) human behavior. At the same time they somehow believe that “God is on our side.”

We live by faith; not mankind’s forecasts. We have one great forecast that we can rely upon; and is the only one that we need: “For while we are in this tent, we groan and are burdened, because we do not wish to be unclothed but to be clothed instead with our heavenly dwelling, so that what is mortal may be swallowed up by life. Now the one who has fashioned us for this very purpose is God, who has given us the Spirit as a deposit, guaranteeing what is to come. Therefore we are always confident and know that as long as we are at home in the body we are away from the Lord. For we live by faith, not by sight” (2 Corinthians 5:4-7).

Forecasting today is an enormous business. We are accustomed to hearing so-called experts opine on the future virtually every day. It is an accepted part of our culture. We hardly think twice about it, being accustomed to what in many cases is fortune-telling and omens. In that sense, the world is as pagan as it has ever been.

Readers may be surprised by that statement. Surely, forecasting isn’t on the same level as enchanting, sorcery, divining, astrology, or the interpretation of omens. Isn’t forecasting much more advanced and scientific than it was a century or several millennia ago?

Not necessarily. There are different types of forecasts. For example, weather forecasting is more advanced today than ever before. With weather satellites proliferating, there have been tremendous improvements in global data collection over the last decade or so. Computing power has also moved forward rapidly.

As such, short-term forecasts (two days in advance or so) of precipitation or temperature have become more useful. All the same, weather forecasting still attracts quite a bit of derision because it is not 100% accurate. Indeed, long-term weather forecasts are still very unreliable. Nonetheless, they are accurate enough over the short-term to be generally helpful.

We can agree that forecasts applying to the physical realm (things subject to physical laws) have improved, though are still very poor in many of these fields—for example, volcanology or seismology. The prediction of an earthquake event has not been mastered yet.

But what about human factors—future events and trends pertaining to human culture, fashion, financial markets, economies, geopolitics, peace and human advancement?

Here we discover that predictions are extremely unreliable. In fact, we find that forecasts are even less accurate than simple probability would suggest. Why? Human beings as a whole have certain biases. They love to hear what they want to hear. They all prefer what pleases the flesh. Observing human nature, we all understand this to be the case.

An article by Tim Harford (“How to See into the Future”) documents the unreliability of human forecasts. A short excerpt follows:

Billions of dollars are spent on experts who claim they can forecast what’s around the corner, in business, finance and economics. Most of them get it wrong. […] Former consultant William Sherden reckoned in 1998 that forecasting was a $200bn industry—$300bn in today’s terms—and the bulk of the money was being made in business, economic and financial forecasting.

It is true that forecasting now seems ubiquitous. Data analysts forecast demand for new products, or the impact of a discount or special offer; scenario planners produce broad-based narratives with the aim of provoking fresh thinking; nowcasters look at Twitter or Google to track epidemics, actual or metaphorical, in real time; intelligence agencies look for clues about where the next geopolitical crisis will emerge; and banks, finance ministries, consultants and international agencies release regular prophecies covering dozens, even hundreds, of macroeconomic variables.

Real breakthroughs have been achieved in certain areas, especially where rich datasets have become available—for example, weather forecasting, online retailing and supply-chain management. Yet when it comes to the headline-grabbing business of geopolitical or macroeconomic forecasting, it is not clear that we are any better at the fundamental task that the industry claims to fulfill—seeing into the future.

Mr. Harford comes to a similar conclusion: Human beings are not good at predicting human behavior. Financial markets, politics, peace, economies … etc. are all connected to human behavior.

Futurists, experts of any kind, and politicians (to name only some) all like to make positive predictions. In no field is there greater bias than in economic and financial forecasting. I have experienced this firsthand many times. We all know that financial crises occur from time to time and that massive declines in stock and bond markets can occur. Yet, one dare not predict any such likelihood. You will be severely scorned.

I remember one occasion years ago where I observed this tendency in almost cartoon fashion. I was being interviewed by a large group of journalists in Hong Kong. Every time I answered their questions in a manner that they liked and would be eagerly received by their readers, they wrote vigorously on their memo pads (this was more than two decades ago … no tablets and iPhones as of yet). However, when I made a tentative comment or pointed to an unsustainable development that could lead to a financial market decline, they became sullen and stopped writing. They would only publish auspicious statements. It was bizarrely hilarious.

It is a bias that certainly infuses the financial forecasting business. Consider the bias of stock market analysts who grossly favor “buy” recommendations rather than sells. A purchase recommendation is more readily received than a “negative” sell.

Just why is it that human beings are poor at forecasting their own behavior and that of societies overall? The Creator of mankind has the answer, and it is found in the Bible that He has inspired for our benefit.

Predictions of Sin Are Profitable

Humans as a whole have certain biases in their behavior. As mentioned, they love to hear what they want to hear. They all naturally prefer that which pleases the flesh. Apostle Paul states that “Those who live according to the flesh have their minds set on what the flesh desires” (Romans 8:5). It is this “fleshly” receptivity that drives Madison Avenue and much of commerce.

The fact of the matter is that human beings are all sinners and they generally take pleasure in their sin—unless, of course, they have been justified through Jesus Christ. Even so, people all have the same “hard-wiring” in the human brain (the flesh), according to the Bible. The Bible points to key vulnerabilities of the human: “For everything in the world—the lust of the flesh, the lust of the eyes, and the pride of life—comes not from the Father but from the world” (1 John 2:16).

It is these same vulnerabilities or natural tendencies that the new scientific field of neural programming (also called neuroeconomics or neurofinance, when applied to economics and markets) seeks to understand. As such, these studies are quite revealing. As with many things, knowledge can have both good and bad applications and can be used for advantage.

Neurofinance is one application that seeks to understand how human behavioral biases can be predicted and better harnessed for predicting investment behaviors. This can afford great advantages to Wall Street marketers and perhaps specialized investment managers.

Neural programming studies are also applied to achieve more effective and response-generating marketing. The “hard-wiring” of the human brain—what some scientists call the reptilian part of our brain—reflects our instinctive preferences … the things that we will want without conscious thinking. In effect, these marketers are trying to use science to better circumvent our critical thinking, by appealing more directly to the “flesh” so as to be successful in selling us more services and merchandise.

Neuroeconomics is one area of prediction that is likely to prove useful to its practitioners. Why? Because it seeks to take advantage of the natural lustful proclivities of natural man. After all, sin is not going out of style. If anything, as godliness declines during these last days (See Jude’s description of these last-day trends. The terms “ungodly” and “ungodliness” are mentioned 6 times.), neuroeconomics will likely prove to be very profitable for its practitioners.

The Christian (the new person born of the Spirit) in principle should not be a victim of the world’s prevailing invitations to respond to fleshly lusts. According to Paul: “[…] but those who live in accordance with the Spirit have their minds set on what the Spirit desires” (Romans 8:5).

Neuroeconomics should find no advantage with their new marketing techniques to such a person. Says Apostle Paul, “It is God’s will that you should be sanctified: that you should avoid sexual immorality; that each of you should learn to control your own body in a way that is holy and honorable, not in passionate lust like the pagans, who do not know God” (1 Thessalonians 4:3-5).

Paul reemphasizes this point: “Put to death, therefore, whatever belongs to your earthly nature: sexual immorality, impurity, lust, evil desires and greed, which is idolatry” (Colossians 3:5).

In fact, Paul goes one step further, stating that it is also wrong to take advantage of sinful human nature: “[…] and that in this matter no one should wrong or take advantage of a brother or sister. The Lord will punish all those who commit such sins, as we told you and warned you before” (1 Thessalonians 4:6).