The Death of a Global System :: By Matt Ward

I often wonder about Job and his amazing resilience. I wonder how I would react if the calamities that afflicted him came upon me. To accumulate such great wealth, status, and comfort and have it all reduced to nothing in such quick fashion, and then have your loved ones taken away from you in such a devastating manner as he. It must have been crushing for him.

I wouldn’t have the resolve or fortitude of Job; I think few would. Yet today, we are all of us like Job. We stand on the very brink of everything we know and have come to accept as “normal” being forcefully changed in just a moment, and almost nobody seems to know it, or worse, care.

We all take everything for granted, even our precious loved ones. Even they can be taken away from us. Very soon, our world will be filled with men and women just like Job. People who have never known the pain of overwhelming and complete systemic loss. People who will very quickly be plunged into the most extreme circumstances of loss imaginable.

This is because our current global system is already effectively dead. Right now, we await the emergence of a new global order, a one-world system of governance and control that will leave no person untouched. Something serious has gone wrong with our current world order, and it now stands on the verge of total collapse.

This is no mere hyperbole either. There is a feeling, just a sense perhaps, that the masses are finally beginning to realize this, even if only at a subconscious level. There is a deep feeling of unease wherever one chooses to look; it permeates all our societies from the Middle East to Russia, from North America to South America, and throughout Western Europe. And with this volatility and unease, there is a tangible sense of societal failure, betrayal and even foreboding over what might yet be in the not too distant future. People and societies are increasingly on tenterhooks.

Stable world orders that last for prolonged periods of time are rare things indeed. Our current world order, now about 75 years old, arose from a period of intense convulsion and violence caused by the Second World War. Over a hundred million people died in the process of birthing our current world order. It is a truism of history that new world orders never arise out of calm but from the ruin of destruction and chaos.

Maintaining any kind of stable world order for any length of time requires skillful diplomacy and statecraft, as world orders are made and maintained; they do not just suddenly appear. If they are not maintained and managed effectively with creative diplomacy, with functioning national and transnational institutions to hold them up, and creative effective decision-making at just the right time to avert crisis, global systems eventually break down and fail.

This is where we stand today, on the very brink of collapse.

Our global system is breaking down and failing right before our eyes. Millions upon millions are still living their lives under the false daily presupposition that the way things are today is the way things will always be in the future, both for themselves and their children. This viewpoint could not be more wrong. Our current global system is fragmenting before our very eyes.

It is no feat of extraordinary prognostication to say such things either. All world orders come to an end eventually. It is an inevitability of all history. Ours will be no different. What is not in any way inevitable, though, is what comes in the wake of a collapsed world order. There is no guarantee that one world order will move seamlessly and peacefully into the next. What is more likely is that there will be another intense period of convulsion and violence before another world order is birthed. It is becoming increasingly clear that we are even now heading into another period of extreme chaos.

It strikes me as being highly unlikely that we will experience a period of peaceful transition into the next world order. In history, I can think of few such examples ever occurring.

Everything in our global system is linked and intertwined. And I do mean everything. The financial system, supply chains, transportation, food, oil production, the electrical grid, nuclear power… everything. When one system fails, it all fails; and the crash, if one is to occur in our global system, will not be a slow one as in previous world systemic crashes, like the Roman Empire that declined over a period of a century or more.

When our society crashes, it will be an epic fast crash.

The interconnectivity of our global system ensures it. The interconnected nature of our world, which enables worldwide business and trade, which in turn generates such huge profits, has not made our world system strong; it has made it incredibly fragile and brittle. If just one element in the complex system fails, all other systems inevitably crash too.

Consider this realistic feedback loop crash related to our dependence on oil. When oil prices rise, so does everything else simply because all things are connected to oil in some way. So, oil prices rise, slowly at first but then very quickly. Food prices then rise in step with the oil price rises. The high price of oil begins to drive many businesses into bankruptcy, which leads, in turn, to a failure in the financial system leading to a collapse in belief in the monetary system. This then leads into societal revolt, which ultimately is what collapses governments.

But even that scenario, bad as it is, would not be the end of the matter. It would get even worse from there. Oil prices, which caused this hypothetical fast crash through high prices, would then experience a price crash because demand would fall to zero. All drilling would then stop, and new exploration projects would end, meaning that in likewise fashion all other connected businesses and industries would stop, and the worldwide economy would crash again. A double whammy.

It would be a domino crash, with one system bringing down the next, and the next, and so on until all that is left is chaos. And this is just one example of many. It could happen in a thousand different ways. What is important is that it will certainly happen.

But are there any indications of this happening today, or even soon? Well, the short answer is yes, there are. There are very real parallels between where our global civilization is today and those of the past, especially to the global system that existed in the mid-nineteenth century, during the Concert of Europe period.

This period saw the most sustained efforts up until that time at building and maintaining a truly global world order, until the modern day. From 1815 until the outbreak of the First World War, a little under a hundred years later, this period saw the first real multinational effort to define international relationships through global law and order, and attempted to set basic norms for international conduct between countries. It was the precursor to our own current United Nations-led world system.

And it failed catastrophically in 1914 with the outbreak of the “war to end all wars.” The crucial lesson for our generation today lies in the way this world system failed, not in the fact that it did so. The Concert of Europe’s increasing failure and demise had become apparent long before it actually came crashing down, but crucially world leaders and decision-makers failed to recognize that simple fact. This meant that the decline was managed poorly, and that led directly to the calamity and carnage of the First World War.

And this is exactly what we are seeing today. We are witness to an ever-growing distrust both within nation-states and especially between them. Civil war is even openly discussed in the United States today as a potentially realistic outcome of the entrenched partisanship of a current US political system that has divided US society, especially in the wake of the recent contested general election.

There is chaos and bloodshed everywhere one chooses to look. In the Middle East, there is no end in sight to the undeclared war between Israel and her blood-sworn enemies Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran is resurgent and increasingly bellicose. Syria is still in the grips of a civil war and is now a ruined land, being eaten up by Iran, Turkey and a host of other competing nation-states. Iraq is as unstable today as it has ever been in its history.

In Turkey, Recep Erdogan has transformed a once pro-West country into an increasingly Islamized one, and an increasingly anti-Israel one too; Asia is riven by tension, and China is actively seeking to reassert itself globally as the world leader that will usurp the United States’ place over the coming decade. This strain can be seen daily in the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea.

Europe is reeling from one crisis to another, mass migration is reshaping the very fabric of the continent, and there is chaos and uncertainty coming to Britain from Brexit.

What makes the demise of our current world system a certainty is that America’s traditional dominance in international affairs is rapidly coming to an end, with its influence in world affairs starting to diffuse. This is why we are seeing the power and the influence of the United States being challenged now like never before.

The election of Joe Biden, if it stands, will only increase this.

None of the current world leaders or decision-makers of today seem to recognize these simple facts. This is likely because the consequences of this actually happening – that our world system actually does collapse – are too awful for many of them to seriously contemplate.

But it will, and all we are waiting for is the crisis that will start the free fall and push us all over the edge.

The really pertinent question, however, is who or what will come forward to take over when the world emerges from the coming chaos?

The Antichrist will. Keep looking up.

wardmatt1977@gmail.com

What Would Happen If Israel and Iran Went to War? :: By Matt Ward

The world, it would seem, has stepped back from the brink. Waking up on the morning of Wednesday, 8th January to the news that Iran had fired 22 missiles at two large Iraqi military bases housing United States troops, I was convinced that war was the only outcome.

It now appears that a direct military confrontation between the United States of America and Iran, as close as both sides have come to open war for a generation, has entered a de-escalatory phase.

Yet, on that Wednesday morning, as I considered the likelihood of a direct, full-scale military exchange between the United States and Iran, there was one thing that dominated my thoughts: Israel.

Wednesday’s exchange brought into sharp focus a question I have been considering for a number of years now: “exactly what would be the likely outcome of a war between Israel and Iran?”

It is a war that has been on the horizon for a long time, discussed often in diplomatic circles, usually in hushed tones because of the chaos many believe it would cause. But what might such a confrontation look like? One thing about such an unpredictable conflict is certain; most people outside military, intelligence or academic circles have absolutely no understanding of how volatile such a war would likely be.

Such a war would not merely be something we “tuned in and tuned out” of on CNN, then go about our normal lives completely untouched. It is likely that each of us would be impacted by such a war.

Considering such a potential future Israel-Iran war is no hypothetical exercise either. Immediately after the Iranian missile attack of Wednesday the 8th, Iran made clear their intentions should the United States decide to respond and retaliate. Iran threatened that their response to a United States retaliation to their missile strike would be to attack Dubai, and then to move directly against Israel.

An Israel-Iran war would not be a limited conflict. The chances are that many other countries would be quickly drawn into such a war.

And this war is becoming increasingly likely. It is indeed sobering to note that the immediate actions of Iran, even in this so-called de-escalatory stage, further guarantee that war will one day soon happen.

One of Iran’s almost instant responses post Wednesday the 8th‘s missile retaliation, has been to fully withdrawn from the already deeply flawed JCPOA, the so-called Iranian nuclear deal. Iran has publicly declared their unwillingness to abide by any of the terms contained within this agreement. This means two things: first, that Iran will now enrich uranium to a point where it can only be used for one thing, in a nuclear weapon; and second, Iran will continue this process now with abandon, at a pace not restricted by international inspections or oversight.

The consequences of this are that Western intelligence agencies now believe that Iran will have enough material for a nuclear bomb in about twelve months from now. So by mid-2021 at the latest. (1)

This one factor alone guarantees war in the near future, short of some astoundingly successful secret sabotage. Israel, and the United States under this President, will simply not allow Iran to become a nuclear weapons state. War is coming, and soon.

So, what would an Iran-Israel war look like? Unfortunately, there is no definitive, publicly available study on just such a war, but what does exist is a plethora of information about the nature and scope of the threats facing Israel currently, in 2020, and how Iran influences and controls these said threats.

In the near future, somebody will have to act. Whether it be Israel directly or the United States. When that happens, the Iranians will respond. They will simply not allow their territory to be attacked without a significant response.

When this happens, all sides will quickly become locked into a cycle of mutual escalation, with one side attacking the other, triggering a counter-attack, triggering a much greater counter-response.

If, or when, a war breaks out between Israel and Iran, the probability of this war becoming a major regional-wide confrontation within just two days is currently rated as extremely high, as much as 90% by some leading Israeli think tanks.

Iran is certain to activate their proxy assets throughout the Middle East, especially those groups neighboring Israel, such as Hezbollah. Over the past two decades and more, Iran has equipped and paid for a huge force in Lebanon, directly opposing Israel. The 2006 Israeli-Lebanon War, known also as the Second Lebanon War, was an effort by Israel to diminish this Iranian proxy threat. It failed utterly.

In the second Lebanon war of 2006, Israel concluded that if it was going to wipe out and nullify this vast threat, entailing hundreds of thousands of rockets, it would result in the loss of a huge amount of Israeli lives and equipment. Therefore, the Israeli Defense Force concluded that the only way to affectively deal with this threat, without such a catastrophic loss of Israeli lives, was to use a low-yield neutron bomb. They concluded this because a neutron bomb has a higher short-term radiological output, but less blast output than normal nuclear weapons, therefore limiting the widespread damage that would be caused.

The world reaction to such an action would be vitriolic. The Muslim world’s reaction to such an act would be equally vitriolic.

Today, in 2020, fourteen years after the Second Lebanon War, the threat from this same force is now even more significant and malign. A conservative estimate is that the total number of missiles and rockets in Lebanon, currently aimed at Israel, stands at between 40,000 and 110,000 in number. This is a conservative estimate. Many of these rockets are unguided Katyusha rockets; however, many are now longer-ranged, quite sophisticated guided missiles. All of Israel will become the front line in the next war.

Manning and protecting this arsenal is believed to be a Brigade-sized group of Hezbollah Special Forces. These men have been trained and equipped directly by Iran. Additionally, these men answer only to Iran, not the Lebanese government. This means that the trigger, so to speak, for this vast arsenal is in Tehran, not in Beirut. In any strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, or war with the United States and/or Israel, Iran would certainly pull this trigger.

Israel faces a huge throw-weight of missiles and rockets. In any Iran war, they would also be contesting against the extensive forces aligned against them in Syria, which has much longer range and larger missiles available to them, not discounting the combination of small rockets and missiles in both the West Bank and Gaza.

The Jewish State would be attacked from all sides at the same time, impacting the border areas of the country and, this time, the heartland too. Israel would clearly be completely overwhelmed against such a bombardment. They face a truly massive number of rockets and missiles aimed at them.

Unfortunately, their situation can and does get even worse. It is now the belief of Israel, and many in the West, that some of these rockets and missiles have radiological, chemical or biological agents attached to them. Especially so concerning the Syrian threat. In fact, it is now quite well-known that the biggest arsenal of non-nuclear WMD currently on Earth resides underneath one city, in large but distributed underground storage facilities: Damascus.

In any future war with Iran, if any of these weapons do have radiological, chemical, or biological agents in them, and are used against the Jewish State, the Israeli response would be unequivocal: the nuclear annihilation of Syria, Iran and parts of Lebanon. Many, many people would lose their lives in such a scenario.

But the matter would not end there, with unprecedented destruction and death in the Middle East. Iran is and has been the greatest sponsor of state-level terrorism in the world for almost a generation. Such an exchange would no doubt entail the activation of any Iranian sleeper cells in the West, in America and Western Europe. Their objectives would be simple and clear – to wreak havoc on domestic western populations, either through direct attacks, or through any number of malicious manufactured killer viruses potentially being released into general population centers.

When one looks at Bible prophecy and reads the words of Ezekiel, amongst others, and then looks at the events of today, one cannot help but think that these words of yesterday were written about our today. We will live through these events. They are events for our time, for our world, for our generation, now.

In light of such events, how should we live and prepare? We should fix our eyes on Jesus and trust in Him only. He is the author of our salvation, the bringer of hope and our only deliverer.

“He who believes in the Son has everlasting life; he who does not believe the Son shall not see life, but the wrath of God abides in him” (John 3:36).

Approach every day with the unique hope that only those regenerated though faith in Jesus Christ can have, and then be about your business bringing salvation to the lost.

“Behold, I say to you, lift up your eyes and look at the fields, for they are already white for harvest!” (John 4:35).

Then, when all is done, lift up your heads and rejoice, for your salvation does indeed draw nigh.

“Now when these things begin to happen, look up and lift up your heads, because your redemption draws near” (Luke 21:28).

  1. https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Soleimani-killing-Window-of-opportunity-open-for-Israel-against-Iran-614151

wardmatt1977@gmail.com