The two kings, with their hearts bent on evil, will sit at the same table and lie to each other, but to no avail, because an end will still come at the appointed time.(The Bible’s definition of diplomacy, from Daniel 11:27)

Today we’re returning to an area of special interest to me. I think watching prophecy being fulfilled in current events really brings the Bible to life.  It energizes our faith and demonstrates the nearness of End Times events. Few if any recent generations could sit with a Bible in one hand and their newspapers in the other and see the fulfillment of prophecy, but for us it’s almost routine.

Beginning the day after I posted part 1 of this commentary, several developing stories revealed there’s much more to the story.  First the world learned of joint training exercises Turkey has agreed to hold with Syria.  On Monday April 27, Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak commented that Turkey’s decision to hold three days of military maneuvers with Syria is “disturbing.”  Never before has an important NATO power staged a joint exercise with any Arab army.

And that’s not all. Turkish defense minister Vecdi Gonul and his Syrian counterpart Hassan Turkmani have agreed to sign a letter of intent for cooperation between their defense industries as well.  According to DEBKAfile’s military sources, the signing and the exercise are major signposts on the shrinking road of military and commercial ties between Turkey and Israel.

Furthermore Ankara has begun defaulting on payments for military purchases and other contracts with Israel, and is currently several million dollars behind on defense contracts worth a total of $5 billion. For its part, Israel has  halted construction on a new tank factory in Turkey and is working to quickly shut down other exchanges to prevent the leakage of military secrets to an avowed Arab enemy.

Conventional wisdom has long held that Turkey’s west-leaning secular army was the real power behind the government and only tolerated the installation of Islamic leaders as long as they didn’t try to rock the boat.  In the past they’ve shut down political parties whose goals were perceived to be at odds with their political strategy.  (Turkey is a NATO member and has undertaken extreme measures to be seen as a European Country, trying for years to qualify for membership in the EU.)  Therefore Israel’s defense and foreign ministries have maintained the view that the presence of a pro-Islamic government in Ankara would not detract from the long-held ties of cooperation and trust between Turkey and Israel.

DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report they’ve misread the signals. The Turkish military is no longer the body it once was. The generals of today are in harmony with Prime Minister Erdogan’s decision to turn Turkey’s back on Israel and its face toward the Moslem world.

Washington’s approval of all this underscores its new policy of building a strong a military coalition  between Syria, Turkey and Lebanon. In part 1 I mentioned President Obama’s OK for Turkey to provide arms and training for the Lebanese army, a force which is already largely subservient to Hizbullah and may come under its complete control in the upcoming Lebanese elections.

According to Syrian sources, Turkey has tightened its relations with Syria partly as a result of Israel’s offensive on the Gaza Strip. They claim that Turkey changed its attitude toward Israel following the three-week war and thus decided to strengthen its military cooperation with Syria.

And now, Russian state arms export firm Rosoboronexport has revealed that Russia is in talks with Turkey about selling Ankara state-of-the-art S-400 air defense systems. Turkey is a traditional rival of Russia, and has long bought many of its weapons from the United States. One more sign of change.

Also, an article in the Jewish World Review claims that having been buoyed by President Obama’s warm embrace of Turkey, PM Erdogan has moved to consolidate his place as a central pillar in a new regional axis spearheaded by Iran, which also includes Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority.

To that end, Turkey recently signed a trade agreement with Iran aimed at doubling trade between the two countries within five years and, again with US approval, agreed to allow Iranian gas exports into Europe through the Nabucco gas pipeline which runs from Turkey to Austria.  Iran’s access to the pipeline will earn it billions of dollars in annual income and increase its political power as Europe becomes more  dependent on Iranian gas. (And less dependent on Russia.)

A report by the Washington Institute indicates that Turkey is expected to break with NATO on such issues as Iran’s nuclear weapons program as well as its proxies Hamas and Hizbullah.  It said Ankara has moved steadily away from its NATO allies and toward Iran, Russia and Syria, and that Turkey’s new foreign policy has come at the expense of Ankara’s relations with Israel, the European Union and the United States. “Ankara will likely opt out of a NATO consensus on Iran, clash with the United States on how to handle Hamas and Hizbullah, and disagree with the EU and the U.S. on Russia,” the report concluded.

For the most part, this all fits very well with Ezekiel’s prophecy of a sneak attack on an unsuspecting Israel by Russia and a coalition of Moslem countries.  Most commentators agree that Turkey has to be with the Moslem attackers against Israel and not on the sidelines (like NATO for example).  Therefore it’s been said that strategically, Turkey is the most important country in the Middle East.

It Isn’t Over Till It’s Over
Baseball great Yogi Berra’s popular saying certainly is applicable here. Preparations for Ezekiel 38 are still a long way from being complete.  As an example of how complicated these things are becoming, less than a week after announcing their big break through in Turkey-Syria relations, Syria left its new found friend to team up with Saudi Arabia and Egypt against the ongoing Turkish effort to hammer out a peace agreement between Syria and Israel.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad abruptly canceled a scheduled trip to South America, hurrying to  Damascus instead.  According to DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources, one reason for his urgent visit  was to thwart the Saudi-Egyptian move to snatch the Syrian-Israeli peace talks backed by Washington away from Turkey and relocate it in the Jordanian capital, Amman.

But he was too late. Syrian president Assad had already appointed one of his most trusted intelligence officers, Gen. Bahjat Suleiman (the Syrian ambassador in Amman) to the position of heading his government’s side in prospective peace talks there.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are solidly backed by the Persian Gulf emirates as well as Jordan in the move to cut Turkish PM Erdogan out and “Arabize” Middle East peacemaking. So Erdogan was left holding an empty bag after he turned against Israel and lined up with Syria and Iran.

(The combined Arab step also dealt a reverse to President Obama’s Middle East plans.  Observers say he planned to use a substantially more forceful approach toward Israel as a bargaining chip in his Middle East strategy.   Strengthening Syria, Turkey and Lebanon was part of the plan to force Israel’s compliance.  He also hoped he could entice Iran into helping with the mess in Pakistan and Afghanistan by showing he was being tough on Israel while opening a dialog with Tehran.  At the same time he warned Israel that unless they get back in line behind the 2 state solution with the Palestinians, they couldn’t expect any help curtailing Iran’s nuclear aspirations.)

You see, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the Persian Gulf Emirates and Jordan are all members of the Arab League.  Turkey and Iran, although Moslem, are not members and are not considered Arabic countries.  The Arabic countries of the Middle East are deathly afraid of Iran.  They also suspect that Turkey’s Erdogan has visions of re-creating the Ottoman Empire (of which several of their countries were once part) with him at its head.

President Obama’s recently begun dialog with these two non-Arab countries has left them feeling very insecure, so much so that two high ranking US diplomatic missions, the first headed by Asst. Sec’y of State Dennis Ross and the second by Sec’y of Defense Robert Gates, were hastily dispatched to the region to reassure them.  Apparently they weren’t successful because Arab leaders were still upset when a 3rd US delegation showed up unannounced to suggest that they should invest several hundred billion dollars in the US economic recovery plan.  The delegation came away empty handed  and the Arabs are still angry, warning that any further US gestures towards those two radical regimes would place US ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf in grave jeopardy.

In response to all this  Pres. Obama, in a sharp reversal, has decided to punish Syria for abandoning Turkey by asking the Congress to re-impose sanctions. He’s also backed away from his flirtation with Tehran and Damascus, and has scheduled a second major speech to the Arab/Moslem world, this time from Cairo.  (This may be due in part to the fact that he really needs the Arab money. The delegation was instructed to tell the Arabs that Fed chairman Bernanke’s recent optimistic report on the US economy’s impending recovery was “premature”.)

In summary,  anyone who thinks he or she sees a straight line from here to Ezekiel 38 simply doesn’t understand the dynamics. Since the 1970’s otherwise competent observers have been saying that Ezekiel 38 is right around the corner and indeed the world has come close several times.  But always at the last moment someone or something has intervened to cause a delay because all the pieces are not yet in place.  For example, the disposition of Israel’s next door neighbors,  Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the PLO  must still be determined, because all are missing from Ezekiel’s list of attackers.  And Israel has to come up with the treasure sufficient to motivate Russia’s participation while being lulled by a perception of peace into thinking they’re safe from attack. (Ezek 38:11)

Even so, breaking the Israel-Turkey alliance is a major step in bring the moslem coalition of Ezekiel 38 together.  You can almost hear the footsteps of the Messiah.

The word of the LORD came to me: “Son of man, set your face against Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of  Meshech and Tubal; prophesy against him  and say: ‘This is what the Sovereign LORD says: I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.  I will turn you around, put hooks in your jaws and bring you out with your whole army—your horses, your horsemen fully armed, and a great horde with large and small shields, all of them brandishing their swords.  Persia, Cush and Put will be with them, all with shields and helmets,  also Gomer with all its troops, and Beth Togarmah from the far north with all its troops—the many nations with you. (Ezekiel 38:1-6)

I first became a serious student of Bible prophecy in the mid 1980s.  During all that time there have been 3 major barriers preventing the fulfillment of a prophecy in Ezekiel 38-39 that tells of a coming battle between Israel and a coalition of Moslem nations.  To say it’s an important prophecy would be an understatement because this battle will cause Israel’s national return to their covenant relationship with God.  It will also bring about the appearance of the anti-Christ, and through him the confirmation of a treaty initiating a period of time known as Daniel’s 70th Week, the last seven years before the Lord’s return to establish His Kingdom on Earth.  The last half of this period is known as the Great Tribulation, said by the Lord to be the most devastating time for man in all of human history.

Two of these three barriers are Biblical and are identified in Ezekiel’s prophecy. The nation we call Turkey today has to be on the Moslem side, and Israel has to be taken by surprise, a peaceful and unsuspecting people as Ezekiel 38:11describes them. Today Turkey is bound to Israel by several military and economic treaties, and Israel is consistently at a high level of military preparedness, alert for an attack that could come on any day.

The third barrier is a pragmatic one.  The USA has always maintained a protective position toward Israel, and has sworn to come to Israel’s aid in case of an attack.  No nation has dared risk US retaliation for an attack on Israel of the magnitude Ezekiel described.

Now, two of these barriers suddenly appear to be coming down.  It’s as if someone in the upper echelon of the US Government has read Ezekiel’s prophecy, sat down with some other decision makers, and decided to see what they could do to help make it happen. Here’s what I mean.

Watch What I Do, Not What I Say
President Obama’s Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel recently told a Jewish leader; “In the next four years there is going to be a permanent status arrangement between Israel and the Palestinians on the basis of two states for two peoples, and it doesn’t matter to us at all who is prime minister.”

This is a remarkable statement, given two current events.  One is that Pres. Obama has just returned from his “apology tour” where he asked European and Arab leaders to forgive the US for being so arrogant in the past and promised that the future would be different.  And the other is that the Jewish people have just elected a slate of leaders opposed to the 2 state solution, having correctly observed that since giving up Gaza brought them the opposite of their desired result, there’s no justification for believing that giving up the West Bank and half of Jerusalem would turn out any differently.   Even that perennial dove Shimon Peres now says that Israel is not going to do anything that weakens its security.

But as if he hadn’t heard his boss’s apology to the world, Mr. Emanuel said that the United States will exert pressure to make sure that deal is put into place.”Any treatment of the Iranian nuclear problem will be contingent upon progress in the negotiations and an Israeli withdrawal from West Bank territory,” he reportedly said.  In other words, US sympathy for Israel’s concern about Iranian nukes depends on Israel’s willingness to get out of the West Bank and permit the establishment of a Palestinian state there, in Gaza, and East Jerusalem.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton agreed, saying that if Israel refrains from engaging in peace talks with the Palestinians, it will risk losing Arab support in its fight against the Iranian threat – and by clear implication, risk losing American support as well.

“For Israel to get the kind of strong support it is looking for vis-à-vis Iran, it can’t stay on the sidelines with respect to the Palestinians and the peace efforts. They go hand in hand,” Clinton told the House of Representatives Appropriations Committee.

According to author and commentator Joel Rosenberg, a train wreck is coming between the U.S. and Israel over the Iran issue. He said,  “The White House and State Department do not seem to understand the radical Shia eschatology that is driving Tehran, and thus do not understand how high the stakes are. Worse, they are getting dangerously close to becoming appeasers of the Ahmadinejad regime.”

Rosenberg was referring to a belief among the leaders of Iran that during a time of extreme chaos on Earth, Islam’s 12th  Imam, a Messiah-like figure called al Mahdi, will appear to restore peace and establish a world wide Caliphate under Moslem authority.   Pres. Ahmadinejad believes he has been called to power for the specific purpose of hastening al Mahdi’s appearance by creating the necessary chaos.  (I think we can all agree that he’s off to a pretty good start.)

An editorial this week in a major Israeli newspaper concluded, “The Americans will not lift a finger (to help Israel against Iran) unless it becomes clear that the main target is America.” The paper said Israel should “prepare for war in an arena and at a time not to our liking.”

And Now For My Next Trick
Not to be outdone, and without consulting with or even informing Israel, Pres. Obama has approved a large Turkish arms sale to the Lebanese army, half of whose manpower are Shiites loyal to Hizballah.  As he signed the arms deal in Ankara Tuesday, April 21, Lebanese president Gen. Michel Suleiman  once again pledged publicly to place the Lebanese army at the disposal of Hizballah in any confrontation with Israel.

This was taken as further proof that the US is deaf to Israel’s immediate security concerns.  There’s a growing conviction in Jerusalem that Mr. Obama endorsed the transaction as a means of breaking up the long-standing military pact between Israel and Turkey, because it interferes with his Middle East objectives.

If he’s successful in breaking the alliance between Israel and Turkey, Mr. Obama will have gone a long way toward facilitating Turkey’s move to the other side in Ezekiel’s line up.  Having a mostly Moslem population and having been put off for years by the EU, Turkey will find a natural home among the other Islamic nations of the Middle East.

In all the time I’ve been studying prophecy, the question has been, “What will it take for the US to turn its back on Israel?”  For a long time it was believed that only something as crippling as the Rapture of the Church could do it.  Then after 9-11 it became obvious that a major terrorist attack, or even the credible threat of one on that scale could perhaps force the US to stand down.  Now it appears that it’s just a matter of changing foreign policy.   Regardless of what assurances we give, forcing Israel to accept an agreement that seriously threatens their national security, then helping to arm one of their fiercest enemies, while driving a wedge between them and an important ally, signals a change in policy that the people of Israel have read loud and clear.

2 Down, 1 To Go
So that leaves the 3rd barrier, the fact that Israel is nor, not has it ever been a peaceful and unsuspecting people.  In all of its 60 year modern history, the only time Israel even came close to fitting that description was just before the Yom Kippur War of 1973, and we all know what happened then.  What will it take to bring down this final barrier?

It turns out that by bringing down the other two, the Obama administration will have helped hasten the day when the third comes down too.  Here’s how.

Imposing a 2 state solution will not bring peace to the Middle East.  In fact the opposite will happen.  War will become more likely. As far back as the Olso Accords of 1993 experts have been insisting that the ultimate outcome of the peace process will be war.  Make no mistake about it. As soon as they believe Israel has been sufficiently weakened and they’ve gained all they can by negotiation, its enemies will attack.  This attack will most likely come from Israel’s next door neighbors who are being armed and prepared at a furious pace.  Isaiah 17 and Psalm 83 indicate that Israel will emerge victorious and enemies like Hamas, Hizbollah, the PLO, Syria and Lebanon will cease to be a threat.  (This explains why none of them appear on Ezekiel’s list of attackers.) When that happens, Israel may believe it’s finally safe to take a breather, and Ezekiel 38:8 says they’ll be living in safety when the attack comes.  The Hebrew word denotes perception rather than fact, and the word careless is included among its meanings.

So the course seems to have been set, and Israel will be left to its own devices for protection, just like Ezekiel prophesied.  An “unauthorized” attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would further alienate them, and could be the trigger for the battle of Psalm 83.

As Sweet As Honey?
Both Ezekiel (Ezek. 3:3,14) and John (Rev. 10:9)were told to eat a scroll of prophecy, and both said that while it tasted as sweet as honey in their mouths it turned bitter afterward.  Prophecy is often that way.  We all know that the end result is to brings God’s people to the point where He can bless them like He’s wanted to for so long, and reading about it brings joy to our hearts.  But when we see how much heartbreak and destruction is caused in the process by man’s rebellious nature, it’s enough to make us sick to our stomach.  For Americans, who have always felt a strong connection between religion and patriotism, this is especially hard to watch.  Maybe this is why Paul cautioned us to fix our eyes not on what is seen but what is unseen, for what is seen is temporary, but what is unseen is eternal (2 Cor. 4:18)  You can almost hear the footsteps of the Messiah.