May 7
Troubling Signs on the Trade Front
The euro has set new highs against the dollar and the Japanese yen. A
little over a week ago, the euro hit a historic high of $1.3682. Last week,
triggered by the prospect of monetary tightening in the eurozone, the
euro rose to a record of 163.62 yen. Since October, the dollar has fallen 4
percent against both the euro and the yen.
As the euro continues to grow stronger as a global currency, I've
become very worried about the ultimate fate of the dollar and the American
economy. While things seem to look rosy now, there are long-term trends that
look very ominous.
One key factor that has been pushing the value of the dollar lower is
our massive trade deficit. In 2006, the deficit amounted to $757 billion,
which was the fifth straight year we set a record for red ink. The projections
for 2007 do not show any signs of improvement. The U.S. imbalance with
China grew to $232.5 billion, the highest ever with a single country.
This lopsided trade practice has built up a huge tab. We now owe the
rest of the world about $4.5 trillion. Approximately 70 percent of all
foreign-exchange currency is currently held in U.S. Treasury debt.
I've noticed several warning signs of how our trade gap is causing the
United States to fall behind as a global economic leader. Here are
four examples:
- With more than 610 billion euro in circulation, the equivalent to
$850 billion, the euro has surpassed the U.S. dollar in terms of combined
value of cash in circulation. A growing number of nations are choosing to base
their national currency on the euro.
- According to figures released by the World Trade Organization,
China has surpassed the United States as the world's second-largest exporter.
With Germany having recently passed up America, Uncle Sam is now third in
line.
- Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. has just unseated General Motors Corp.
as the world's biggest automaker, outselling its U.S. rival by around
90,000 units in the first quarter of this year.
- During the oil crisis days of the 70s, we imported 35 percent
of the petroleum we consume. Today we import nearly 60 percent of our oil
needs. To make matters worse, we now import large quantities of the gasoline
we use to power our automobiles. Because no one in the U.S. wants a
refinery in his or her backyard, the shortfall in domestic refinery capacity is
the main reason gas is now above $3 per gallon.
Americans' addiction to cheap imports is the driving force behind the
trade imbalance. If it can be produced overseas at a lower cost, American
companies will move production to a foreign country. Wal-Mart has been
a major promoter of this type of business practice. The firm might as
well be called the Asia outlet mall.
I strongly believe that the trade imbalance is an economic bubble that
will someday burst with dramatic results. With all bubbles, you eventually
reach a point of insanity that tells you the end is near. In the case of the
housing bubble, the crazy level was when lenders began making loans to
people
who lacked the ability to make the mortgage payments.
In the case of the trade bubble, I would point to the wheat gluten
scandal in pet food as a possible indicator of the extreme excess. It's well
known that America has the largest surplus of grain in the world. I was
amazed that pet food companies would be importing gluten from China, a
country that has been struggling to feed its own people. I guess the
determining factor was cost: the gluten could be purchased for 40 cents a pound
here, and they were able to get it from China for 39 cents a pound. Forget
the fact that the wheat gluten was laced with deadly chemicals, which
killed hundreds of pets and triggered a recall that cost the companies millions
of dollars. Hey, the whole idea was to save a penny on cost.
If global markets operated in an efficient manner, the dollar would
have steadily declined to a level that would have restored stability to our
balance of trade. Many of our trading partners have worked hard to keep
the dollar from falling. Whenever the dollar declines, they go and buy
large quantities of the greenback.
The Chinese have been the biggest offender in currency manipulation. They
do not allow their currency to float at all. While the dollar has been
falling against the euro and other currencies, the yuan has been fixed at 8.3
for 13 years. By having their currency greatly undervalued, the Chinese have
created a vacuum that has sucked away manufacturing jobs from the U.S.
and other nations. I sometimes wonder if this is some type of financial warfare
that is being conducted against us.
There is no set point where a collapse will automatically be triggered.
As long as people continue to have faith in the dollar, the game can go
on. With the trade deficit now exceeding six percent of the American
economy, logic tells us that sooner or later some type of rupture will
transpire.
The rapture could be the pin that pops this colossal debt bubble. As
I've said before, America has the highest percentage of Christians than any
other nation on earth. The loss of such a large portion of the
population during the rapture would cause this nation to collapse into chaos.
End-time Christians already have a good reason to not be fixated on
the cares of this world. The perilous state of our financial system should
only add to the urgency of being focused on promoting the kingdom of God.
-- Todd
End-of-Days Scenarios Part 10
The prince –in our end-of-days scenario--has come forth from the people (the Romans) who destroyed the city (Jerusalem) and the sanctuary (the Jewish Temple) just as foretold by Daniel the prophet (Dan. 9:27). He comes guaranteeing a peace that has already been negotiated, and through great, swelling words aggrandizes himself in the eyes of many peoples throughout the world (Dan. 7:20).
Daniel 11:38: "But in his estate shall he honour the God of forces: and a god whom his fathers knew not shall he honour with gold, and silver, and with precious stones,
and pleasant things."
The Assyrian beast magnifies himself above all. He has attained godhood in his own inflated opinion of his abilities. He manifests the prideful arrogance of all of the great kings, princes, and tyrants of history in one ego-maniacal, supernaturally empowered man.
The great leader, at the same time –according to Daniel 11: 38—is in league with the “god of forces," and heaps riches upon a god his fathers would have no part of worshipping. These are a couple of fascinating foretellings about the prince who has come forth. He casts his lot, at least initially, with a couple of interesting “gods.” The first god referenced is a god that invokes aggressive, militant, and deadly action to achieve its way. The prince who has come uses this god and its forces to accomplish great things –for himself, of course.
The second god spoken of indicates a religious system, whose love of the riches of life is at the center of all worship. The former “god” fits the profile of Allah, whose holy book, the Koran, demands that all who do not bow the knee to Islam be dispatched from this life. The latter “god” is further described in Revelation chapter 17. The false religious system that seduces the kings of the earth is both Catholic and Protestant apostate religionists, all rolled cozily together with ecumenical entities from the various religions of the world.
Antichrist will, the Scriptures say, turn on both the god of forces and on the god his fathers –Abraham and his predecessors-- would not worship. He will –ultimately—abide no worship other than of himself.
While Islam grows more fanatic, and proliferates through birth rate that far outstrips any other militant ethnic people, the great leader from the EU and other western powers combine and turn against the “god of forces.” Islam has gotten too threatening to the technological democracy the latest and greatest Fuhrer wants to institute. Islam will not adjust.
These forces –whose god commands them to remain pure in Islam’s draconian ways, recede, and reconnoiter in regions native to their hordes. They join with powerful allies north of their comfort zone. The revived Russian military force is led by a leader who has special mention in end-of-days Bible prophecy.
“Gog,” which means ”leader,” looks with lust toward the south and all of the oil-based riches of the Middle East. Economic and other factors make the Russian Gog think an evil thought. The Islamics, unwelcome in their interference with the Assyrian leader of the newly forming one-world plan, hitch their ambitions to the Russian leader’s evil thought to rule the petroleum fields –and to thereby destroy Israel. Destroying Israel is at the heart of Islamic thinking. The Jews must forever be eradicated from the land they proclaim belongs to them.
The great western leader eyes the great eastern leader. The supernaturally saturated prince of Bible prophecy will –in our scenario—know that Gog is about to get his come-uppance. The western leader, directed by the same “god” as the eastern leader, knows what is about to happen. He bides his time.
Israel sits, without means to defend herself. The Jewish nation’s leaders have given their complete trust to the western leader, who has personally guaranteed their peace and safety.
But, the great western leader, in spite of his watching the situation develop, isn’t quite confident in his assessment of what Bible prophecy has to say about this moment in human history. He’s not certain developments are necessarily in his favor.
His own kingdom Is still under construction. While he won’t move until he fully consolidates his unstoppable power, he watches Gog and the Islamics gather for assault on the Middle East. His time will come. He will move, then, as no other leader in history has ever moved --in all-out aggression.
“But tidings out of the east and out of the north shall trouble him: therefore he shall go forth with great fury to destroy, and utterly to make away many” (Dan 11:44).
But, it will be another force that deals with Israel’s great enemy at this particular moment. We will see that next time, God willing.
--Terry
